- Economy Expands by 5.3% in Q3 2024 Amid Strong Investments and Export Growth
- Trade Value Grows 13.7% YoY, While Trade Surplus Declines by 57.5%
- Malaysia Officially Added as BRICS Partner Country, Strengthening Global Positioning
- Malaysia Plans National Cloud Policy and Introduces AI Regulations, Positioning AI as a Key Driver for Inclusive Growth
Malaysia Economic Update Report
Quarter 3, 2024
In this issue:
Malaysia’s Economy Expands by 5.3% in Q3 2024 Amid Strong Investments and Export Growth
Malaysia’s GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, driven by robust investment activity, steady export performance, and resilient household spending.
Malaysia’s economy demonstrated resilience in the third quarter of 2024, with key indicators reflecting continued growth, supported by strong investment activity and improved export performance. According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.3% year-on-year (YoY), reaching RM419.2 billion. This aligns with consensus forecasts by Reuters, which had projected a 5.3% growth rate for the July-to-September period, albeit moderating from 5.9% growth in Q2 2024. On a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), seasonally adjusted basis, growth momentum moderated to 1.8% compared to 2.9% in the previous quarter. Overall, the Malaysian economy expanded by 5.2% during the first three quarters of 2024.
The economic expansion was largely driven by robust investment activity and steady improvement in exports. Investments were underpinned by strong spending on structures, machinery, and equipment, while household spending continued to expand, supported by a positive labor market and policy measures. In the external sector, exports strengthened, benefitting from recovering global demand and the ongoing global tech upcycle. Imports also grew at a faster pace, driven by strong demand for capital and intermediate goods to support rising trade and investments. On the supply side, growth was broad-based, with key contributions from the manufacturing sector, although mining activities experienced a downturn due to maintenance and weaker demand for fossil fuels.
- Construction Sector: The construction sector recorded an impressive 19.9% YoY growth in Q3 2024, accelerating from 7.2% in Q3 2023 and 17.3% in the previous quarter. This expansion was fueled by large-scale infrastructure projects, including highways and rail networks, alongside increased activity in residential and commercial developments.
- Agriculture Sector: The agriculture sector grew by 3.9% YoY, recovering from 0.3% growth in Q3 2023 but moderating from 7.3% in Q2 2024. The rebound was supported by strong palm oil production and favorable weather conditions that boosted crop yields.
- Services Sector: The services sector maintained steady growth of 5.2% YoY, slightly up from 4.9% in Q3 2023 but down from 5.9% in Q2 2024. Growth was driven by robust performance in consumer-facing subsectors such as retail and tourism, alongside increased demand for digital and financial services.
- Manufacturing Sector: Manufacturing output rose by 5.6% YoY, recovering strongly from a -0.1% contraction in Q3 2023 and up from 4.7% in Q2 2024. The improvement was supported by key industries such as electronics, semiconductors, and petrochemicals, as global supply chains normalized.
- Mining and Quarrying Sector: The mining and quarrying sector contracted by -3.9% YoY, worsening from -1.1% in Q3 2023 and down from 2.7% in the previous quarter. The decline was attributed to weaker fossil fuel demand amid global energy transitions and a slowdown in natural gas production.
- Import Duties: Import duties surged by 16.8% YoY, significantly higher than 8.5% in Q3 2023 and 2.7% in Q2 2024. This was driven by increased imports of raw materials and intermediate goods for manufacturing and construction, as well as higher imports of consumer goods.
Headline and core inflation remained stable at 1.9% in Q3 2024, consistent with Q2 2024 levels. Notable inflationary pressures were observed in diesel prices (20.1% in Q3, up from 5.3% in Q2) and vehicle insurance (0.8% in Q3, compared to -0.1% in Q2). These were offset by a moderation in food and beverage inflation, particularly for food away from home, cereals, and fresh vegetables. The share of Consumer Price Index (CPI) items recording monthly price increases declined to 38.9% in Q3 2024, down from 49.4% in Q2 2024.
Year-to-date, headline and core inflation averaged 1.8%, with the effects of diesel price adjustments on broader prices effectively contained through robust mitigation and enforcement measures. These efforts minimized the impact on business costs and limited pass-through to retail prices. Looking ahead, inflation trends will hinge on the implementation of additional domestic policy measures, such as subsidies and price controls, alongside fluctuations in global commodity prices and financial market dynamics.
In Q3 2024, the Malaysian ringgit appreciated by 14.9% against the US dollar, while the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) appreciated by 9.9%. This appreciation was partly due to a shift in the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance, easing pressure on regional currencies. However, between October 1 and November 13, the ringgit depreciated by 7.8% against the US dollar, driven by a stronger dollar amid expectations of smaller US policy rate cuts. On a year-to-date basis (as of November 13), the ringgit appreciated by 3.1% against the US dollar and by 6.6% in NEER terms. Moving forward, exchange rate movements will likely depend on external developments, but Malaysia’s favorable macroeconomic conditions and structural reforms are expected to support the ringgit in the medium term.
Credit growth to the private non-financial sector moderated to 4.8% in Q3 2024, down from 5.5% in Q2 2024, driven by slower growth in business loans and corporate bonds. Loan growth for non-SMEs decelerated, while SME loan growth remained strong. By sector, credit growth to services was sustained, while growth for the manufacturing and construction sectors moderated. For households, credit growth remained steady, supported by loans for housing and vehicle purchases. Household loan applications continued to grow, with approval rates remaining robust.
Malaysia’s Q3 2024 Trade Value Grows 13.7% YoY, While Trade Surplus Declines by 57.5%
Malaysia’s trade performance in the third quarter of 2024 reached a total value of RM743.2 billion, reflecting a 13.7% year-on-year (YoY) growth and a 5.3% increase compared to the second quarter of 2024. However, the trade surplus saw a notable decline, falling to RM25.1 billion, representing a 21.5% decrease from the previous quarter and a sharp 57.5% contraction compared to the same period last year.
Malaysia’s trade performance in the third quarter of 2024 demonstrated sustained growth, underpinned by strong export and import activities. According to data from Matrade, the National Trade Promotion Agency of Malaysia, the total export value reached RM384.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 7.8% and a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) rise of 4.2%. Key export products included Electrical & Electronic (E&E) Products and Palm Oil & Palm Oil-Based Agriculture Products. Notably, the top three export products with the highest YoY growth in value were Machinery, Equipment & Parts (+22.8%), Palm Oil & Palm Oil-Based Agriculture Products (+21.7%), and Palm Oil-Based Manufactured Products (+21.2%). Malaysia’s primary export markets remained Singapore, the United States, and China, underscoring their critical role in the country’s trade landscape.
On the import side, Malaysia’s total import value for Q3 2024 stood at RM359.0 billion, marking a substantial YoY growth of 20.8% and a QoQ increase of 6.6%. Major imported products included E&E Products, Petroleum Products, and Machinery, Equipment & Parts. Among these, the fastest-growing import categories were E&E Products (+43% YoY), Machinery, Equipment & Parts (+32.6% YoY), and Processed Food (+16.1% YoY). Malaysia’s top import partners during this period were China, Singapore, and the United States, reflecting robust trade ties with these economies.
From January to September 2024, Malaysia’s total trade value rose 10.2% to RM2.139 trillion, surpassing the RM2 trillion mark within nine months, a milestone reached in ten months during 2023. Exports expanded by 5.2% to RM1.115 trillion, while imports surged by 16.1% to RM1.024 trillion, resulting in a trade surplus of RM91.2 billion. These figures align with the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) projection of 7.4% export growth for Asia in 2024, highlighting Malaysia’s growing contribution to the region’s trade activities.
Malaysia’s trade performance with its major trading partners during the first nine months of 2024 showed the following trends:
- ASEAN: Total trade with ASEAN expanded by 7.4% to RM576.2 billion, driven by a 4.9% increase in exports (RM330 billion) and an 11% rise in imports (RM246.2 billion). The growth was supported by higher exports of petroleum products, machinery, and metal-based goods.
- China: Trade with China grew by 9% to RM355.2 billion. However, exports to China declined by 1.9% to RM137.1 billion, primarily due to reduced demand for E&E products and chemicals. Imports from China increased significantly by 17.2% to RM218.1 billion, reflecting strong demand for industrial inputs.
- United States: Trade with the US surged by 28.3% to RM234.4 billion, with exports rising 17.6% to RM140.5 billion, driven by robust shipments of E&E products, machinery, and optical equipment. Imports from the US grew sharply by 48.6% to RM94 billion, supported by rising demand for capital goods.
- European Union (EU): Trade with the EU increased by 6.1% to RM163.1 billion. Exports edged up 2.8% to RM86.7 billion, fueled by strong demand for palm oil products, rubber goods, and processed food. Imports rose 10% to RM76.4 billion.
- Taiwan: Trade with Taiwan grew significantly by 37.5% to RM129.1 billion, with exports soaring 51.9% to RM48.7 billion, supported by higher shipments of E&E products and optical equipment. Imports from Taiwan increased by 30% to RM80.4 billion.
- FTA Partners: Trade with Malaysia’s Free Trade Agreement (FTA) partners rose by 6.2% to RM1.396 trillion, with exports up 1.8% to RM753.8 billion and imports increasing 12% to RM641.7 billion.
Malaysia Officially Added as BRICS Partner Country, Strengthening Global Positioning
On October 24th, Malaysia was officially recognized as one of 13 nations added to the BRICS bloc as a partner country, marking a strategic shift in its international economic and diplomatic strategy.
BRICS, an influential coalition initially consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Later, the bloc has since expanded to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. BRICS collectively accounts for about 20% of global trade and 28% of global GDP.
On October 24, 2024, BRICS officially welcomed 13 new nations as partner countries, including Malaysia, alongside Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. This milestone follows Malaysia’s formal application on July 28th, when Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim announced that the country had submitted its bid to Russia to join the intergovernmental alliance.
Anwar’s administration sees Malaysia’s new status within BRICS as a platform to unlock new economic opportunities. An academic analysis highlights that the economic strength of the BRICS bloc presents substantial opportunities for Malaysian businesses. Key sectors such as palm oil, rubber, and electronics, where Malaysia holds a competitive advantage, are expected to benefit from increased market access to BRICS nations, potentially boosting exports and driving growth in these industries.
The timing of Malaysia’s application and its subsequent acceptance as a BRICS partner is significant for multiple reasons. Economically, it aligns with Malaysia’s ongoing efforts to diversify its trading relationships and mitigate overreliance on any single trade bloc. By engaging with BRICS, Malaysia adds to a portfolio that already includes participation in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). These partnerships are designed to ensure Malaysia’s relevance in global trade while also reducing economic risks amid fluctuating geopolitical dynamics. The nation’s strategy is further supported by several bilateral free trade agreements with countries such as Japan, Turkey, Pakistan, and Australia.
Beyond economics, the pursuit of BRICS membership reflects Malaysia’s evolving foreign policy under Anwar’s leadership, which seeks a more independent and equidistant approach to global powers. Becoming a BRICS partner also enhances Malaysia’s diplomatic flexibility, complementing its involvement in regional and global frameworks. Membership in BRICS strengthens Malaysia’s ability to maintain a balanced foreign policy, as it navigates between competing powers without becoming overly aligned with any particular bloc. While BRICS provides access to new economic opportunities in emerging markets, Malaysia’s continued engagement with Western-led trade agreements, like the CPTPP, ensures it retains access to developed economies.
The partnership with BRICS also reflects Malaysia’s pragmatic approach to economic diplomacy. As global trade patterns shift and new economic alliances emerge, Malaysia is working to adapt and remain competitive. For Malaysian businesses, especially in sectors like agriculture, electronics, and manufacturing, BRICS offers the potential to expand into large, fast-growing markets such as India, China, and Brazil. At the same time, the involvement in multiple trade arrangements ensures that Malaysia can weather uncertainties arising from disruptions in any one region or bloc.
In conclusion, Malaysia’s addition to BRICS as a partner country represents a calculated move that aligns economic ambitions with foreign policy objectives. The partnership not only opens doors to greater market access for Malaysian products but also reflects the nation’s broader goal of participating in a multipolar world. By engaging with both BRICS and Western-led trade frameworks, Malaysia is working to position itself as a proactive player in global affairs, capable of balancing competing interests while advancing its economic and political goals. As the BRICS partnership evolves, it is expected to serve as a platform for Malaysia to deepen its global engagement and bolster its economic resilience amid shifting geopolitical landscapes.
Malaysia Plans National Cloud Policy and Introduces AI Regulations, Positioning AI as a Key Driver for Inclusive Growth
According to Deputy Prime Minister Fadillah Yusof, the government aims to harness AI technologies to create economic opportunities, enhance public services, and promote sustainable development. These efforts are part of Malaysia’s broader initiative to foster a digital economy that benefits various sectors and communities, ensuring no one is left behind.
Malaysia’s national cloud policy will focus on four core areas, namely public service innovation and efficiency, economic competitiveness and growth, strengthening user trust and data security, and empowering citizens through digital inclusivity. The government would also set up a national AI office to coordinate initiatives, including completing a five-year technology action plan as well as a regulatory framework to increase adoption of ethical and sustainable AI within the next 12 months.
Fadillah emphasized that the AI framework will focus not only on economic returns but also on ensuring inclusivity. “AI can transform industries and generate new opportunities,” he stated, underscoring the government’s intention to use AI to bridge gaps between urban and rural communities, promote equal access to education, and improve healthcare delivery. The government’s proactive stance reflects its desire to embed AI into the national development agenda, contributing to both economic productivity and social equity.
Google’s growing involvement in Malaysia aligns with these ambitions. The tech giant recently announced that its ongoing investments in the country’s digital ecosystem are projected to add $3 billion to Malaysia’s GDP by 2030, along with creating 26,500 new jobs. These developments highlight the increasing role of technology in Malaysia’s economic landscape, demonstrating how cloud computing and AI can drive growth across multiple industries, from manufacturing and logistics to education and healthcare.
As the government works on finalizing AI regulations, the focus is on creating a framework that fosters innovation while safeguarding public trust. The new rules aim to ensure ethical AI deployment, data privacy protection, and transparency, mitigating potential risks associated with advanced technologies. This regulatory approach is intended to balance Malaysia’s push for technological advancement with social responsibility, aligning with global best practices.
With the national cloud policy complementing the AI agenda, Malaysia is setting the foundation for a robust digital ecosystem that integrates cloud infrastructure with AI-driven solutions. The government sees this dual strategy as essential for driving sustainable economic growth and improving public services. By adopting forward-thinking policies, Malaysia seeks to position itself as a regional leader in digital transformation, with AI at the core of efforts to achieve both economic progress and social inclusivity.
About this report
This report was compiled with contributions from the team of business experts in our Malaysia office.
ARC Consulting, a division of ARC Group, is an advisory firm specialised in supporting western companies operating in Asia. Our mission is to bridge between the business ecosystems of Asia and those in Europe and the US. Our services cover market entry and expansion, production and sourcing, cross-border M&A as well as ESG and operational improvement and compliance.
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References
- https://open.dosm.gov.my/dashboard/gdp
- https://www.bernama.com/en/news.php?id=2363766
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/malaysias-economy-grows-53-yy-q3-2024-11-15/
- https://www.nst.com.my/business/economy/2024/11/1135144/malaysias-economy-grows-53pc-q3
- https://www.bnm.gov.my/-/qb24q3_bm_pr#:~:text=The%20economy%20grew%20by%205.3,and%20continued%20improvement%20in%20exports.
- https://www.matrade.gov.my/en/export-to-the-world/216-malaysian-exporters/trade-performance-2024
- https://thediplomat.com/2024/07/malaysia-has-applied-for-brics-membership-anwar-says/
- https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2024/10/24/malaysia-takes-major-step-towards-brics-membership-with-official-partner-status/154647
- https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/10/24/malaysia-12-other-countries-officially-added-as-brics-partner-countries